Winners and losers in the Wisconsin primary

The Wisconsin primary is in the books.  Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders won solid victories even while Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remain the clear delegate leaders heading into New York's primary on April 19.

Below are my winners and losers from Wisconsin.

Winners

*Bernie Sanders: Bernie Sanders is a 74-year-old, avowed socialist from Vermont.  When he announced his presidential candidacy last year, no one -- up to and including Bernie Sanders -- thought he would win one state much less the 15 he has now won. No, his win in Wisconsin won't fundamentally alter Sanders's delegate math problem; to solve that issue, Sanders needs to win big states by very big margins. But, Sanders's ability to win -- and keep winning -- in head-to-head match-ups against Clinton means that he has and will continue to have a major voice within the party. What Sanders wants to do with that voice -- whether in the two remaining months of the primary process or at the national convention this summer -- is the key question he has to decide on. And that Clinton has to worry about.

 

 

 

Ted Cruz: Give the Texas senator credit: When he needs to win, he wins.  If Cruz had lost Wisconsin, pressure would have ramped up on him to bow to the political reality of Trump as the nominee. Now, he can make the case that Wisconsin fundamentally changed the trajectory of the 2016 race (I don't buy it).

 

 

Cruz gets 18 delegates for winning the statewide vote in Wisconsin and if his margins hold up he looks well positioned to take the lion's share of the remaining 24 delegates, importantly keeping most of them from Trump. For Cruz, the rest of the primary calendar is all about two things: 1) Keeping Trump under the 1,237 delegates needed to formally clinch the nomination and 2) Positioning himself as the clear/only Trump alternative. Cruz took a big step in the right direction on both fronts on Tuesday night.

New York: Not that the state -- and especially New York City -- need much ego-bolstering, but, holy cow, the next two weeks are going to put the Empire State in the political limelight. That will be something new-ish for New York since the presidential nominations are almost always foregone conclusions before they get to the state. But, the Clinton-Sanders fight to lay claim to the title of New York's favorite Democrat will be epic. And, Trump's attempt to reassert himself as the likely GOP nominee in the state where he has made his name and his fortune should be great theater too. Take it away, Billy!

* Charlie Sykes: Outside of Wisconsin, almost no one had heard of Sykes two weeks ago. But, after his pointed interview with Trump, Sykes suddenly became a known national commodity. (He was doing a sitdown with Chris Matthews on MSNBC on Tuesday night!) Good on you, Charlie!

* Political junkies: An open Republican convention is more likely today than it was yesterday. I -- and every other political junkie -- never thought we would see one (in either party) in our lifetime. Now, it looks like a 50-50 proposition (or maybe even a bit better). This is me, when thinking of the idea of covering an open convention in Cleveland this summer:

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Losers

* Donald Trump: Polling done in February showed the real estate mogul with a comfortable lead. He lost convincingly on Tuesday to Cruz. Why? Self-inflicted errors -- from being totally unprepared for an interview with Sykes to his fumbling of questions about his stance on abortion. Want a stat that epitomizes Trump's problems in Wisconsin? More than one in three (35 percent) of Wisconsin Republicans